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The challenges confronting small-business owners and families making a life for themselves in our splendid Adirondack Park are real. We do not dispute them, but understanding their extent and the forces behind them leads us to two further conclusions. First, economically, the Adirondacks are doing better than most similar rural regions across the United States. Yet despite a strong position relative to other rural areas, there remains much about the local economy that can be improved. Second, so long as Adirondack and New York leaders and planners incorrectly attribute economic difficulties to conservation, efforts to improve the circumstances of Adirondack businesses and families will be misdirected and ineffective. We want Adirondack communities to succeed, but to do this they need good information that correctly diagnoses their problems.
The dominant trend in the American population in recent decades is the explosion of economic and population growth in and near metropolitan areas and a concomitant, often precipitous decline in rural areas. The baby boom era after World War II saw a rise in rural populations from the 1950s to the 1970s. The past three decades have marked a dramatic shift in American life as rural areas have stagnated or experienced decline, while most American metropolitan areas have experienced population and economic growth.
From 1970 to 2020, 30% of all U.S. counties lost population compared with losses in 41% of Rural America counties. From 2010 to 2020, 53% of all U.S. counties lost population, compared with losses in 67% of Rural America counties. During these years, the overwhelming majority of metropolitan areas grew. Most jobs are now located in metropolitan America. Today, more than 90% of Americans with college and graduate degrees have settled in metropolitan areas, and these areas have a substantially younger population than do rural areas.
In 2020, 13.7% of the U.S. population lived in Rural America, yet this area was home to fully 25% of senior citizens. The graying of Rural America from coast to coast is a major part of the big picture of national population trends and is a major challenge for rural communities. In the Adirondacks this issue is compounded because not only do we have a typical older rural population, but we also recruit retirees whereas many other rural regions see their retirees move away.
The Adirondack Park faces the same economic and population challenges experienced by most of Rural America. While most of the U.S. population grows increasingly urban and connected to the digitized, global economy, Rural America is engaged in a struggle to maintain viable communities, to provide essential services and institutions, and to plan for a future with smaller populations, lower birth rates, and low-growth economies.
To confront the challenges facing the Adirondack Park, we need good data and good analysis. This report aims to provide a fresh understanding of the realities of the Adirondack condition. First, this report compares the Adirondack Park economic and population experience with the overall statewide and national experiences. Second, this report compares Adirondack Park communities with the experiences of other rural areas in New York and U.S. (See all nine regions analyzed in this report on the top of the next page.) Third, this report analyzes the Adirondack Park experience over the past 50 years, a period when the modern Adirondack Park was established.
Figure 3: New York State Geographic Regions Analyzed in this Report
61 Park Towns 100% within the Adirondack Park
47 NY Towns with similar population density as the 61 Park Towns
31 Split Towns partially within the Adirondack Park boundary
859 Towns, Cities, or Boroughs not part of the above
We were fortunate that U.S. Census data starting in 1970 allowed us to analyze economic and population trends at the municipal level in New York and at the county level across the U.S. This enabled us to make comparisons both across different geographic areas and also across time periods. Data at the town level in the Adirondacks were important. In the past, economic and population studies about the Adirondacks were hampered by the fact that 10 of the 12 Adirondack counties are divided by the Park’s boundary. This makes it difficult to accurately analyze the Adirondack Park.
To undertake our analysis, we divided the 92 towns in the Adirondack Park into two geographic areas to be compared with other regions. First, we used the 61 towns fully within the boundary of the Adirondack Park (referred to henceforth as the “Park Towns”) by aggregating their economic and population data. In 2020, these communities were home to 96,866 people, 79% of the Park’s total population of 123,316. While there is variation within these communities, they have similar land use controls and environmental protections.
Second, we grouped the 31 towns that are split by the Blue Line (“Split Towns”). Much of the population and economic activities within these communities are outside the Park, but it is impossible to determine how much, so we combined the economic and population data for these 31 towns. In 2020, these towns were home to 128,043 people, an estimated 21% of whom lived inside the Adirondack Park. See Figure 3 above for the locations of the Park Towns and Split Towns. There was no cherry-picking of towns for different analysis. They were either completely within the Blue Line or split by it.