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Key Findings
From 1970 to 2020, the Park Towns’ ratio of children (0–14 years old) to adults of childbearing age (20–44 years old) decreased by −52.7%, more than that of other areas.
In 2020, the Park Towns’ ratio of children to adults of childbearing age was 0.54:1, similar to the U.S. ratio of 0.55:1 and higher than the New York State’s ratio of 0.49:1, but lower than that of other rural areas outside the Northeast U.S.
In 2020, 11.3 million New Yorkers and 122.7 million Americans lived in places with a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than that of the Park Towns.
Table 17: Percent Change in Ratio of Children to Adults of Childbearing Age in New York and U.S., 1970–2020
| Area | 1970 | 2020 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York State | 0.85:1 | 0.49:1 | −42.8% |
| Rural NY Towns | 1.17:1 | 0.64:1 | −44.9% |
| Park Towns | 1.14:1 | 0.54:1 | −52.7% |
| Split Towns | 1.02:1 | 0.58:1 | −43.2% |
| United States | 0.91:1 | 0.55:1 | −39.4% |
The ratio of children (0 to 14 years old) to adults of childbearing age (20 to 44 years old) provides useful information about the birth rate of a region. Birth rate trends across the U.S. from 1970 to 2020 showed a sharp decline below the ratio of 1:1 (one child per one adult).
There are two interesting things about the analysis of the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age. First, the Park Towns experienced the greatest change, from 1.14:1 children per adult to 0.54:1 children per adult a −52.7% decline. Second, while the 2020 ratio of 0.54:1 children to adults is lower than that of other rural areas (see Tables 17 and 18), it is higher than the New York State ratio of 0.49:1 and consistent with the national ratio of 0.55:1. In this measure, the Park Towns trend more like New York State metro areas than they do with other rural areas.
Figure 67: Comparison of changes in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 between the Park Towns and New York State towns, cities, and boroughs
From 1970 to 2020, 16% of the towns, etc., in New York State had a greater decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than did the Park Towns. These places were home to 970 thousand people, 5% of New York State’s population.
149 New York State towns, etc., with a greater decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 than that of the Park Towns
757 New York State towns, etc., with a smaller decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 than that of the Park Towns
Figure 68: Comparison of the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age 2020 between the Park Towns and New York State towns, cities, and boroughs
In 2020, 23% of towns, etc., in New York State had a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than did the Park Towns. These places were home to 11.3 million people, 57% of New York State's population.
210 New York State towns, etc., with a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age in 2020 than that of the Park Towns
696 New York State towns, etc., with a higher ratio of children to adults of childbearing age in 2020 than that of the Park Towns