Key Findings

This report does what has never been done before in the Adirondack Park: analyze the economic and population experience of Adirondack Park communities compared with other areas across New York State, the United States, and Rural America. We undertook this analysis to test longstanding claims that economic development and the population vitality of Adirondack communities have been harmed by environmental protections. If Adirondack communities had experienced negative impacts from environmental protections, this would be plainly seen in a nationwide analysis of 50 years of economic and population data of New York State and the United States from 1970 to 2020. The conclusion reached in this nationwide analysis found that the experiences of Adirondack communities are consistent with the major trends in Rural America in these years.

The findings in this report stand out starkly from the popular narrative about the singular negative experience of Adirondack communities due to environmental protections. This report shows that Adirondack communities generally had stronger economic performances than many other rural areas across the U.S. and population trends that were consistent with many other rural areas across the U.S.

From 1970 to 2020, Adirondack communities generally posted stronger growth of income and employment and had a lower poverty rate than did other rural areas. The Park’s slight population decline in recent years is due to a combination of factors that plague rural areas, including the loss of college-age young people, low recruitment of career age adults, and mortality among its high population of older residents. The loss of college age young people and the mortality of old people are strong trends across Rural America. This report found that unlike many other rural areas, the Adirondacks recruits career age adults and retirees, but has a lower birth rate than other rural areas.

General

When compared with areas across New York State, the United States, and Rural America, the economic performance and population trends experienced by the 61 towns fully within the Adirondack Park from 1970 to 2020 exceeded or were consistent with those of other rural areas.

Median Household Income Trends

From 1970 to 2020, the Park Towns’ increase in median household income of +13.6% exceeded the New York State increase of +9.8% and the national increase of +9.5%.

From 1970 to 2020, the Park Towns saw a higher growth in median household income than did 1,039 rural counties, home to 63% of the population of Rural America.

In 2020, the Park Towns had a higher median household income than did 85%, of Rural America counties, home to 83% of the population of Rural America.

Per Capita Income Trends

The Park Towns’ increase in per capita income of +109.6% from 1970 to 2020 exceeded the New York State increase of +73.9% and the national increase of +74.5%.

The Park Towns’ increase in per capita income from 1970 to 2020 exceeded that of 1,533 rural counties, home to 85% of the population of Rural America.

The Park Towns’ per capita income in 2020 of $36,286 exceeded the national level of $30,647 and that of other rural areas, but lagged behind the New York State level of $36,155.

The Park Towns’ 2020 per capita income was higher than that of 1,758 rural counties, home to 89% of the residents of Rural America.

Poverty Rate Trends

From 1970 to 2020, the poverty rate of the Park Towns increased by +0.7 percentage points. This was in marked contrast to the New York State increase of +5.7 percentage points and the U.S. increase of +2.2 percentage points.

The Park Towns’ +0.7 percentage point increase in its poverty rate from 1970 to 2020 was better than that of 71% of the Rural Northeast U.S. counties.

The Park Towns’ 2020 poverty rate was lower than that of 2,140 U.S. counties, home to 62% of the U.S. population.

The Park Towns’ 2020 poverty rate was lower than that of 1,463 rural counties, home to 78% of the population of Rural America.

Employment Trends

The increase in the Park Towns’ employment rate for people 16 years of age or older from 1970 to 2020 was greater than the increases of New York State and the U.S.

The Park Towns’ 2020 employment rate of 52.1% lagged behind New York State’s rate of 58.9% and the U.S. rate of 59.7%.

The Park Towns’ +8.8% growth in its employment rate from 1970 to 2020 was higher than that of 1,045 rural counties, home to 58% of the population of Rural America.

The Park Towns’ 2020 employment rate of 52.1% was higher than that of 614 rural counties, home to 28% of the population of Rural America.

Self-Employment Trends

The increase in the Park Towns’ self-employment rate of people 16 years of age or older from 1970 to 2020 was greater than the increases for the U.S. and other rural areas but lagged behind New York State.

The Park Towns’ 2020 self-employment rate of 6.7% was higher than the rates of New York State and the U.S.

The Park Towns’ 2020 self-employment rate of 6.7% was higher than that of 848 counties, home to 75% of the population of the U.S.

The Park Towns’ 2020 self-employment rate of 6.7% was higher than that of 268 rural counties, home to 22% of the population of Rural America.

Growth of Total Taxable Assessments in New York

Of the 61 Park Towns, 49 exceeded the New York median for growth in Total Taxable Assessments (the total land and improvements values in a town), while 12 were below. The majority of Park Towns had property assessment value growth that exceeded the state median.

2010–⁠2020 Short-Term Economic Comparisons

From 2010 to 2020, the Park Towns experienced stronger performances in five standard economic indicators than did the majority of New York State, the U.S. and Rural America.

Population Trends

From 1970 to 2020, the Park Towns’ population increased by +6.49%, a rate that was less than New York State’s population growth of +10.75%.

The Park Towns’ population increase from 1970 to 2020 was higher than that of 1,095 counties with 17% of the U.S. population and 915 rural counties with 30% of the population of Rural America.

In 2020, the Park Towns were part of vast American landscape of declining population. This area consisted of 1,628 counties, covered 48% of the U.S. land area, and was home to 49.8 million people.

Median Age Trends

The Park Towns’ median age in 2020 was 50.0 years, similar to the median age of 48.6 years of the Low Density Northeast counties, but much higher than New York State’s median age of 38.9 years and the U.S. median age of 38.7 years.

In 2020, even though the Park Towns’ median age of 50.0 years was one of the highest in the U.S., there were 340 counties across the U.S., 11% of all counties, with a population of 11.2 million people, that had a higher median age.

Ratio of Children to Adults of Childbearing Age Trends

From 1970 to 2020, the Park Towns’ ratio of children (0–14 years old) to adults of childbearing age (20 to 44 years old) decreased by 50%, greater than that of other areas.

In 2020, the Park Towns’ ratio of children to adults of childbearing age was 0.54:1, similar to the U.S. ratio of 0.55:1 and higher than the New York State’s ratio of 0.49:1, but lower than that of other rural areas outside the Northeast U.S.

In 2020, 11.3 million New Yorkers and 122.7 million Americans lived in places with a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than that of the Park Towns.

NYS School District Enrollment Trends

From 1970 to 2020, the enrollment of the 679 New York State school districts we analyzed decreased by 818 thousand students, not including New York City. Across New York 89% of school districts in our analysis experienced decreased enrollment in those years. Fully 73% of New York school districts experienced a 25% or greater loss of students.

Age Group Trends

The study of different age groups, starting with the group born between 1936 and 1945 and ending with the group born between 1986 and 1995, revealed key patterns of population gains and losses in the nine regions. The Park Towns lost college age young people in their late teens and early 20s at a rate of −3,156 people per decade. The Park Towns recruited career age people after age 35 years old in low numbers. The Park Towns also recruited people of retirement age starting at age 55. Recruitment of career age people at 35 years of age and retirees did not recoup the loss of college age young people. This pattern of major loss of college age young people and minor recruitment of career age adults, with regional variation in the recruitment of retirees, dominates population dynamics across Rural America. ❑