| ← Breakdown of Population Loss for the 61 Park Towns from 2010 to 2020 | ↑Table of Contents | Recommendations → |
Stop Blaming the Park
As the data and analysis of this report have made clear, it is time to stop blaming whatever economic distress we find in the Adirondack Park on environmental protection, either in purchase of land for the Forest Preserve or conservation easement, or through limiting development on private land. The Adirondack Park and its residents and businesses are part of Rural America and subject to all the population and economic pressures experienced by similar regions throughout the United States. Adirondack economic and population trends are fully consistent with the experience of other rural areas across the U.S.
The Adirondack Park has been held up as a bold experiment in conservation and environmental protection. At the same time, the impacts on the local economy and population have been argued about with anecdotes or limited data, such as comparing some indicator for an Adirondack county with that of the New York State average. Difficult questions have seldom received thorough examination. Through careful analysis in this report, we have shown that the economic and population trends of Adirondack communities over the past 50 years are consistent with those of other rural areas, even as environmental protections have advanced significantly.
The Adirondack Experience is the Experience of Rural America
One reality of life in Rural America is that there are fewer choices than those found in metropolitan areas for just about everything, from restaurants and shops to employment opportunities and basic services. In the Adirondacks, these limitations are offset by the joys of small-town life and easy access to the public Forest Preserve, which provides an abundance of wild areas, forests, mountains, and waters. The natural landscape of the Adirondacks is not only beautiful, but it provides many opportunities for outdoor recreational activities and underwrites the high quality of life for residents.
When it comes to local economic or population trends, the realities of Adirondack life are similar to those of other rural areas. Adirondack Park communities are today, and always have been, among the most thinly populated areas of the United States. The 61 Adirondack Park Towns are part of a geography of the most sparsely populated reaches of Rural America—an area that occupies 61% of the land area of the lower 48 U.S. states and is home to just 6.4% of the population.
What is special about the Adirondack Park is the world-class protected landscape of mountains, forests, lakes and rivers. The abundant, protected natural resources are key assets and advantages for the region and sets the Adirondack Park apart from most other rural areas.
From 1970 to 2020, compared to rural communities elsewhere, many Adirondack communities experienced improvement in median household income, per capita income, and poverty rate. Far from showing a wasteland of economic distress, long-term trends over 50 years show Adirondack communities that consistently out-performed other areas in Upstate New York and across Rural America.
The employment rate in Adirondack communities experienced significant gains in these years. Two considerations were revealed in employment data that merit further investigation by Park leaders. First, the self-employment rate of Adirondack communities is increasing at the same time that it is declining across many parts of Rural America. This is a promising basis for recruiting people to live in the Park. An investment to create some form of support infrastructure for self-employed people in the Adirondacks should be considered.
Second, many Adirondack communities are seeing recruitment of career age adults around age 35. While our analysis disproved a common misperception in the Adirondacks about young families forced to leave the Park, the opposite reality points to an opportunity. Adirondack communities would benefit from some type of career center or clearinghouse that helped identify career-track employment opportunities to match those who want to live in the Adirondacks with existing career opportunities.
Adirondack communities are part of a vast landscape in the U.S. where declining population is the norm. In 2020, 53% of counties in the lower 48 U.S. states, which were home to 49.8 million people and covered one-third of the country, lost population. Losses were more widespread in Rural America where 67% of counties lost population.
New York State, including its rural areas, has a low birth rate, very different from the rates across Rural America. Population growth in Rural America in the decades after World War II was followed by decades of urbanization and rural flight, which accelerated after 2010. Metropolitan area populations have expanded and rural areas have contracted. All of these factors, shaped by national or state trends, suggest that Adirondack communities may see slow population loss for decades.
The only areas where the Adirondack Park is distinctive or where we are a meaningful statistical outlier is median age and the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age. The Adirondack Park is part of a landscape shared with 340 counties and 11.2 million people across the U.S. that have a median age 50.0 years or older. The high median age in the Adirondacks is due to a combination of factors: an older rural population; a low rate of reproduction; and recruitment of retirees. While the high median age of the Adirondacks stands out, it’s important to note that fully 15% of counties across Rural America have a similarly high median age.
The Park’s ratio of children to adults of childbearing age is low when compared to other rural areas, but it is consistent with the ratio of New York State and the U.S. Around the world, declining birth rates are driven by affluence, family planning, and increased educational opportunities for women. In 2020, if the adults of childbearing age in the Adirondacks reproduced at the rate seen in other rural areas in the U.S. we would have seen upwards of 1,800 to 2,700 more children under 14 years of age. That would be a dramatic increase in the area’s school enrollment population.
One consequence of the low ratio of children to adults of childbearing age is that most Adirondack school districts have experienced declining enrollments. These declines must be assessed in the context of the larger trend of declining school pop- ulations across New York State. Fully 89% of New York school districts experienced a decline in enrollments. Long-term population trends in New York are shaping enrollment numbers in Adirondack schools. Small and declining school populations are likely a reality for Adirondack communities for decades to come.
Adirondack communities face the same set of population realities as do other communities across Rural America. Longterm trends for rural areas across the U.S. show a future of population losses driven by two factors: 1) The departure of young people, primarily for college; 2) The deaths of older residents, who constitute a high percentage of the residents of both Rural America and the Adirondacks. The road ahead will not be an easy one for the Adirondack Park. The forces shaping Adirondack population dynamics are the same forces shaping the dynamics of Rural America, and they will be difficult to alter or reverse. Rural areas lose young people for college and military service. Rural areas have higher numbers of older residents due to patterns of high birth rates in Rural America in the years after World War II. By 2020, the last year that we have data for, as a consequence of the rural baby boom from the 1940s to the 1970s, we are seeing high levels of natural mortality of older residents.
Despite slow population loss in Adirondack communities, there are some bright spots. Many Adirondack communities see population gains at higher rates than those of many other rural areas among career age adults who move to the area after age 35, in the prime of their working careers. Unlike many other rural areas, the Adi- rondacks recruits a significant number of retirees. The challenge facing Adirondack communities is that the gains made in career age adults and retirees are not large enough to recoup the total losses of college age young people.
A Fork in the Road
The Adirondack Park is coming to the close of a historic period of land protection. The next 25 years will see far less acreage added to the Forest Preserve or protected by conservation easements than was the case during the last 25 years. The final shape of the Adirondack Park is coming into focus as the total of land in public and private hands approaches its final mix.
Now is the time to take stock of the last 50 years, ask important questions, and organize an accurate assessment of the root causes of the economic and population challenges facing Adirondack communities. This will lead to better decision making and intelligent choices to guide strategies for sustaining and expanding the local economy and communities and making critical investments.
In the Adirondack Park, there are signs of success. From 1970 to 2020, the Park has experienced an increase in wealth as measured by median household income, per capita income, and poverty rates. The employment rates of Park communities grew by margins higher than those of New York and the U.S. The Park’s self-employment rate is higher than that of most other rural areas. Our overall population trends are consistent with vast swaths of Rural America. The accomplishments of the last 50 years have created a solid foundation on which to continue to build sustainable and viable communities across the Adirondacks, though major challenges remain.
The Challenges Ahead
Now is the time to assess accurately the state of Adirondack communities and develop new strategies that will prepare the region for the decades ahead. Now is the time to develop plans for how Adirondack communities can grow more dynamic and prosperous even with smaller populations.
A number of questions need to be asked and answered. How can Adirondack government and business leaders work with the state to acknowledge the profound appeal of living, playing, and working amid millions of acres of protected open space? How can we look more carefully at the causes of economic and demographic realities to craft realistic long-term strate- gies for community and economic development? Will Adirondack communities continue to attract upwards of 1,500 retirees per decade? Will this number go up or down? Will Adirondack communities continue to recruit small populations of career age young people and what can be done to expand this number? What services and support can be created to expand levels of self-employment or recruit self-employed people to move to the Park?
Adirondack Park and New York State leaders and planners can answer these and other questions using solid data and analysis. They can acknowledge the realities of Rural America and emphasize the spectacular asset that is the Adirondack Park. For 125 years, the Adirondack Park has been a New York State and national treasure. There is no reason why the future cannot be one where rigorously protected open space continues to surround and sustain vibrant communities. ❑
