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Ratio of Children to Adults of Childbearing Age: Adirondack Park vs Rural Northeast U.S.

The sharp −52.7% decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 of the Park Towns was the largest in this study. There are few other places in the U.S. that saw such a drop. The Park Towns’ ratio of children to adults of childbearing age was similar to much of Rural America’s in 1970, but by 2020 it only matched New York State’s and the Rural Northeast’s ratio.

Table 18: Percent Change in Ratio of Children to Adults of Childbearing Age in Rural America, 1970–2020

Area 1970 2020 Change
Park Towns 1.14:1 0.54:1 −52.7%
Rural America
USDA Nonmetro U.S. 1.02:1 0.62:1 −38.8%
Low Density U.S. 1.09:1 0.65:1 −40.6%
USDA Nonmetro NE 0.97:1 0.56:1 −43.0%
Low Density NE 1.05:1 0.58:1 −45.0%

Why did the Park Towns have a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than did other rural areas in 2020? This is a sociological question that is beyond the scope of this report. What we do know is that if the Park Towns had a ratio like other rural areas there would be more children in the Adirondacks. If the Park Towns’ ratio of children to adults of childbearing age was 0.65:1 like the 1,337 Low Density U.S. counties there would have been 2,713 additional children 14 years old or younger in the Adirondacks in 2020. If the ratio was 0.62:1 like the 1,941 USDA Nonmetro counties there would be 1,899 more children.

It’s important to note that in 2020 many areas across the U.S. had even lower ratios of children to adults of childbearing age than that of the Park Towns. These include places in New York with a population of 11.3 million people and in the U.S. with a population of 122.7 million. Historically, a low birth rate is tied to the greater availability of family planning options, a rising standard of living, and greater opportunities for women to pursue higher levels of education. A low birth rate is a common phenomenon across modern industrial societies around the world. ❑

Figure 71: Comparison of changes in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 between the Park Towns and the Rural Northeast U.S. counties

Comparing with USDA Nonmetro Northeast counties, from 1970 to 2020, there were 1 USDA Nonmetro NE counties out of 80 which lost more 0 to 14 year olds than the Park. The Park performed better than 1% of the USDA Nonmetro NE counties. There were 7 thousand persons out of 4.2 million (0%) living in these USDA Nonmetro NE counties. Hartford, CT −45.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Litchfield, CT Fairfield, CT New Haven, CT Middlesex, CT New London, CT Tolland, CT Windham, CT Worcester, MA Middlesex, MA −52.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Nantucket, MA Barnstable, MA Suffolk, MA Bristol, MA Plymouth, MA Norfolk, MA Essex, MA Hampden, MA Hampshire, MA Berkshire, MA −49.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Franklin, MA −47.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Dukes, MA −41.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Aroostook, ME −35.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Piscataquis, ME −42.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Knox, ME −43.8% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lincoln, ME Sagadahoc, ME Cumberland, ME York, ME Androscoggin, ME −46.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Oxford, ME −46.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Kennebec, ME −42.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Waldo, ME −45.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Hancock, ME −41.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Washington, ME Penobscot, ME −46.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Franklin, ME −45.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Somerset, ME −51.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Coos, NH −47.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Grafton, NH Strafford, NH Rockingham, NH −43.6% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cheshire, NH −43.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, NH Hillsborough, NH −39.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Belknap, NH −47.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Merrimack, NH −42.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Carroll, NH Monmouth, NJ Ocean, NJ Richmond, NY Essex, NJ Union, NJ Hudson, NJ Bergen, NJ Middlesex, NJ Somerset, NJ Morris, NJ Passaic, NJ Sussex, NJ Warren, NJ Hunterdon, NJ Mercer, NJ Camden, NJ Gloucester, NJ Salem, NJ Cumberland, NJ Cape May, NJ Atlantic, NJ Burlington, NJ Clinton, NY Essex, NY Orleans, NY −46.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Genesee, NY −49.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Wyoming, NY Livingston, NY Schenectady, NY −32.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Montgomery, NY Fulton, NY −39.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Seneca, NY Ontario, NY Yates, NY −48.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Schuyler, NY Tompkins, NY −46.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cayuga, NY Onondaga, NY −41.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cortland, NY −45.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Chenango, NY Madison, NY Oneida, NY Lewis, NY Herkimer, NY −46.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Otsego, NY Schoharie, NY Albany, NY Saratoga, NY Warren, NY Hamilton, NY Franklin, NY St. Lawrence, NY Jefferson, NY Oswego, NY Wayne, NY Monroe, NY Niagara, NY Erie, NY −38.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Chautauqua, NY −39.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cattaraugus, NY −43.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Allegany, NY −40.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Steuben, NY Chemung, NY Tioga, NY Broome, NY −44.8% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Delaware, NY −34.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, NY −47.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Greene, NY New York, NY Ulster, NY Bronx, NY Kings, NY Rockland, NY Nassau, NY Orange, NY Queens, NY Suffolk, NY Westchester, NY Putnam, NY Dutchess, NY −46.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Columbia, NY Rensselaer, NY Washington, NY Philadelphia, PA Bucks, PA −50.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Greene, PA Fayette, PA Washington, PA Allegheny, PA Beaver, PA −35.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lawrence, PA Butler, PA Armstrong, PA −36.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clarion, PA −83.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Forest, PA −27.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Venango, PA Mercer, PA −36.4% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Crawford, PA Erie, PA Westmoreland, PA −42.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Indiana, PA −35.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Jefferson, PA −34.6% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Warren, PA −45.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, McKean, PA −41.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cameron, PA −47.8% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Elk, PA −51.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clearfield, PA Blair, PA Cambria, PA −46.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Somerset, PA −39.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bedford, PA −29.6% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Fulton, PA −43.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Huntingdon, PA Franklin, PA −28.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Mifflin, PA −37.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Potter, PA −32.8% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clinton, PA Centre, PA −30.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Union, PA Montour, PA −36.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Tioga, PA Lycoming, PA Wyoming, PA −38.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, PA Columbia, PA −36.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Northumberland, PA −25.5% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Snyder, PA −34.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Juniata, PA Perry, PA Cumberland, PA Adams, PA York, PA Dauphin, PA Lebanon, PA Lancaster, PA Berks, PA −39.8% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Schuylkill, PA Carbon, PA Luzerne, PA Lackawanna, PA −39.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bradford, PA −38.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Susquehanna, PA −48.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Wayne, PA Pike, PA Monroe, PA Northampton, PA Lehigh, PA Delaware, PA Montgomery, PA Chester, PA Kent, RI Providence, RI Bristol, RI Newport, RI Washington, RI −44.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Essex, VT −46.1% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Orleans, VT −38.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bennington, VT Grand Isle, VT −46.0% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Washington, VT −39.6% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Caledonia, VT −45.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lamoille, VT Franklin, VT Chittenden, VT −51.7% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Addison, VT −47.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Rutland, VT −45.3% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Windham, VT −47.2% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Windsor, VT −45.9% change in ratio of 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Orange, VT

From 1970 to 2020, 1% of USDA Nonmetro Northeast U.S. counties with a greater decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than did the Park Towns. These places were home to 7 thousand people, 0% of the population of the Rural Northeast U.S.

Northeast U.S. metropolitan counties

1 Rural Northeast U.S. counties with with a greater decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 than that of the Park Towns

79 Rural Northeast U.S. counties with a smaller decrease in the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age from 1970 to 2020 than that of the Park Towns

Figure 72: Comparison of the ratio of children to adults of childbearing age in 2020 between the Park Towns and the Rural Northeast U.S. counties

Comparing with USDA Nonmetro Northeast counties, in 2020, there were 30 USDA Nonmetro NE counties out of 80 wiith lower 0 to 14 year olds v. 20 to 44 year olds than the Park. The Park performed better than 38% of the USDA Nonmetro NE counties. There were 1.8 million persons out of 4.2 million (43%) living in these USDA Nonmetro NE counties. Hartford, CT 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Litchfield, CT Fairfield, CT New Haven, CT Middlesex, CT New London, CT Tolland, CT Windham, CT Worcester, MA Middlesex, MA 0.45:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Nantucket, MA Barnstable, MA Suffolk, MA Bristol, MA Plymouth, MA Norfolk, MA Essex, MA Hampden, MA Hampshire, MA Berkshire, MA 0.48:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Franklin, MA 0.48:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Dukes, MA 0.63:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Aroostook, ME 0.62:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Piscataquis, ME 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Knox, ME 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lincoln, ME Sagadahoc, ME Cumberland, ME York, ME Androscoggin, ME 0.60:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Oxford, ME 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Kennebec, ME 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Waldo, ME 0.52:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Hancock, ME 0.60:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Washington, ME Penobscot, ME 0.55:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Franklin, ME 0.57:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Somerset, ME 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Coos, NH 0.41:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Grafton, NH Strafford, NH Rockingham, NH 0.50:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cheshire, NH 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, NH Hillsborough, NH 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Belknap, NH 0.49:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Merrimack, NH 0.57:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Carroll, NH Monmouth, NJ Ocean, NJ Richmond, NY Essex, NJ Union, NJ Hudson, NJ Bergen, NJ Middlesex, NJ Somerset, NJ Morris, NJ Passaic, NJ Sussex, NJ Warren, NJ Hunterdon, NJ Mercer, NJ Camden, NJ Gloucester, NJ Salem, NJ Cumberland, NJ Cape May, NJ Atlantic, NJ Burlington, NJ Clinton, NY Essex, NY Orleans, NY 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Genesee, NY 0.49:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Wyoming, NY Livingston, NY Schenectady, NY 0.64:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Montgomery, NY Fulton, NY 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Seneca, NY Ontario, NY Yates, NY 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Schuyler, NY Tompkins, NY 0.55:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cayuga, NY Onondaga, NY 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cortland, NY 0.64:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Chenango, NY Madison, NY Oneida, NY Lewis, NY Herkimer, NY 0.44:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Otsego, NY Schoharie, NY Albany, NY Saratoga, NY Warren, NY Hamilton, NY Franklin, NY St. Lawrence, NY Jefferson, NY Oswego, NY Wayne, NY Monroe, NY Niagara, NY Erie, NY 0.60:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Chautauqua, NY 0.65:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cattaraugus, NY 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Allegany, NY 0.63:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Steuben, NY Chemung, NY Tioga, NY Broome, NY 0.56:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Delaware, NY 0.60:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, NY 0.49:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Greene, NY New York, NY Ulster, NY Bronx, NY Kings, NY Rockland, NY Nassau, NY Orange, NY Queens, NY Suffolk, NY Westchester, NY Putnam, NY Dutchess, NY 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Columbia, NY Rensselaer, NY Washington, NY Philadelphia, PA Bucks, PA 0.51:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Greene, PA Fayette, PA Washington, PA Allegheny, PA Beaver, PA 0.59:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lawrence, PA Butler, PA Armstrong, PA 0.57:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clarion, PA 0.17:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Forest, PA 0.66:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Venango, PA Mercer, PA 0.62:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Crawford, PA Erie, PA Westmoreland, PA 0.51:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Indiana, PA 0.63:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Jefferson, PA 0.62:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Warren, PA 0.59:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, McKean, PA 0.62:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Cameron, PA 0.59:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Elk, PA 0.51:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clearfield, PA Blair, PA Cambria, PA 0.54:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Somerset, PA 0.63:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bedford, PA 0.66:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Fulton, PA 0.50:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Huntingdon, PA Franklin, PA 0.68:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Mifflin, PA 0.67:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Potter, PA 0.59:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Clinton, PA Centre, PA 0.46:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Union, PA Montour, PA 0.63:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Tioga, PA Lycoming, PA Wyoming, PA 0.62:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Sullivan, PA Columbia, PA 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Northumberland, PA 0.61:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Snyder, PA 0.65:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Juniata, PA Perry, PA Cumberland, PA Adams, PA York, PA Dauphin, PA Lebanon, PA Lancaster, PA Berks, PA 0.55:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Schuylkill, PA Carbon, PA Luzerne, PA Lackawanna, PA 0.67:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bradford, PA 0.64:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Susquehanna, PA 0.50:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Wayne, PA Pike, PA Monroe, PA Northampton, PA Lehigh, PA Delaware, PA Montgomery, PA Chester, PA Kent, RI Providence, RI Bristol, RI Newport, RI Washington, RI 0.65:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Essex, VT 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Orleans, VT 0.61:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Bennington, VT Grand Isle, VT 0.52:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Washington, VT 0.59:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Caledonia, VT 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Lamoille, VT Franklin, VT Chittenden, VT 0.47:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Addison, VT 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Rutland, VT 0.51:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Windham, VT 0.53:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Windsor, VT 0.58:1 ratio 0–14 to 20–44 year olds, Orange, VT

In 2020, 38% of towns, etc., in New York State had a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age than did the Park Towns. These places were home to 1.8 million people, 43% of the population of the Rural Northeast U.S.

Northeast U.S. metropolitan counties

30 Rural Northeast U.S. counties with a lower ratio of children to adults of childbearing age in 2020 than that of the Park Towns

50 Rural Northeast U.S. counties with a higher ratio of children to adults of childbearing age in 2020 than that of the Park Towns

 

The Adirondack Park and Rural America: Enconomic and Population Trends 1970–⁠2020