Population Trends of the Millennials Age Group 2000 to 2020

Key Findings

The Park Towns’ Millennials age group experienced a −27.0% population loss from 2000 to 2020. This was consistent with all other rural areas, wich saw losses of −20.6% to −34.5%.

The Millennials age group across the U.S. grew by +8.8% and the New York State Millennials grew by +10.2%.

The last age group is the Millennials, who were born between 1986 and 1995, and by 2010 were 15 to 24 years old. The limited data available for the Millennials show that this age group was shaped by the significant loss of college age young people. See Table 25.

The Park Towns saw a loss of nearly 1,900 young people of college age. These years show about half of the total of approximately 4,000 young people that the Park Towns generally lose for college or military service.

The data for the Millennials age group as shown in Table 25 are limited, but the trend is clear. The U.S. grew due to immigration from abroad and New York State grew through recruitment of Millennials to attend college in metropolitan areas. Rural areas as a rule lost Millennials, seeing rates as low as −20.6% to a high of −34.5%. The most thinly populated of the rural areas saw the greatest population losses.

Two things should be noted about the Millennials age group in the Park Towns. First, though the Park Towns lost nearly 2,000 young people, they retained or recruited more than 12,000 young people. Second, the maps show that though the Park Towns’ experience of −27.0% population rate is serious, this loss was less than losses in the Rural New York Towns of −34.5% and equal to the Split Towns drop of −24.3%. Fully, 62% of the towns, etc., across New York State and 50% of the counties in Rural America experienced even greater losses. These areas were home to 13% of New York’s population and 32% of the population of Rural America. It will be interesting to see in 2020 and beyond whether the Millennials age group sees further population losses or posts population gains. ❑

Table 25: Population changes in the Millennials age group (born between 1986 and 1995) in nine study regions from 2000 to 2020

Areas 2000
5–14
2010
15–24
2020
25–34
Change
2000–2020
New York State 2,658,762 2,747,163 2,929,585 +10.2%
Rural NY Towns 9,473 7,225 6,201 −34.5%
Park Towns 13,805 11,961 10,078 −27.0%
Split Towns 18,634 16,141 14,103 −24.3%
United States 40,807,711 43,196,105 44,411,093 +8.8%
Rural America
USDA Nonmetro 6,319,236 6,063,308 5,130,520 −18.8%
Low Density US 2,768,518 2,428,445 2,123,558 −23.3%
USDA Nonmetro NE 587,107 566,183 466,239 −20.6%
Low Density NE 61,009 54,603 44,259 −27.5%

Table 25 shows that the Park Towns’ Millennials age group saw a −27.0% population loss from 2000 to 2020. This loss was driven by the first wave of departure of college-age young people, where nearly 2,000 left the Park Towns. All rural areas in this study experience a similar population loss, ranging from −20.6% to −34.5%. New York State and the U.S. Millennials age groups saw modest population gains.

Figure 96: Population changes in the Millennials age group (born between 1986 and 1995) in nine study regions from 2000 to 2020

Graph of Population Changes for Millenials (born between 1986 and 1995) in nine study regions from 2000 to 2020 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2000 5–14 2010 15–24 2020 25–34 New York State Rural NY Towns Park Towns Split Towns United States USDA Nonmetro Low Density US USDA Nonmetro NE Low Density NE Graph of Population Changes for Millenials (born between 1986 and 1995) in nine study regions from 2000 to 2020 normalized to United States population to remove mortality and U.S. immigration factors -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2000 5–14 2010 15–24 2020 25–34 New York State Rural NY Towns Park Towns Split Towns United States USDA Nonmetro Low Density US USDA Nonmetro NE Low Density NE

Figure 96 shows in two line graphs the population gains or losses of the Millennials age group across nine different regions from 2000 to 2020, first as raw percentages and second normalized using U.S. population to correct for mortality, et cetera.