Population Trends of the Generation X Age Group 1980 to 2020

Key Findings

The Park Towns’ Generation X age group experienced a −21.8% population loss from 1980 to 2020, driven by a loos of over 4,000 college age young people. All other rural areas saw similar major losses of college age young people.

While the Park Towns exported over 4,000 college-age young people, they retained or recruited over 11,000.

The Generation X age group across the U.S. experienced a +17.1% gain and New York State grew by −2.5%.

The Park Towns recruited over 800 people after age 35 years old in the prime of their working careers. These gains were consistent with other rural areas.

The Generation X age group was born between 1966 and 1975 and were children 5 to 14 years old in 1980 and adults in the prime of their working careers by 2010. The Park Towns’ Generation X age group experienced a major −21.8% loss, driven heavily by the loss of over 4,000 college-age young people. This was similar to losses of other rural areas, which ranged from −16.0% to −23.5%. See Table 23.

The loss of college age young people was a distinct pattern across all rural areas, but by contrast, New York State recruited over 100,000 college age young people. The U.S. posted major gains as well, as immigration from abroad is driven by young people.

One thing to note is that the heavy loss of college age young people from 1980 to 2000 across rural areas was followed by significant recruitment of people after age 35. These are people in their prime career ages, who made the decision to either move back or move to small towns in rural areas. It remains to be seen if this trend continues for the Generation X age group, and other rural areas, in 2020 and beyond.

Another trend emerged in the Generation X age group. It’s that population losses were greater in the most thinly populated of the rural areas. The various “Low Density” areas posted greater losses than did other rural areas. The maps show that the experience of the Generation X age group in the Park Towns was consistent with that of large swaths of New York, the rural Northeast U.S., and Rural America. ❑

Table 23: Population changes in the Generation X age group (born between 1966 and 1975) in nine study regions from 1980 to 2020

Areas 1980
5–14
1990
15–24
2000
25–34
2010
35–44
2020
45–54
Change
1980–2020
New York State 2,553,610 2,566,419 2,697,126 2,578,211 2,489,196 −2.5%
Rural NY Towns 10,001 7,566 6,951 7,677 7,568 −24.3%
Park Towns 15,321 12,822 11,060 11,879 11,984 −21.8%
Split Towns 20,040 17,596 15,789 17,593 17,254 −13.9%
United States 34,565,292 35,909,831 39,192,806 40,668,641 40,477,584 +17.1%
Rural America
USDA Nonmetro 6,453,899 5,695,014 5,259,331 5,475,701 5,353,781 −17.0%
Low Density US 2,803,650 2,229,228 2,106,901 2,217,018 2,161,736 −22.9%
USDA Nonmetro NE 628,336 584,432 498,679 536,759 528,046 −16.0%
Low Density NE 72,013 61,395 49,399 54,958 55,117 −23.5%

Table 23 shows that the Park Towns’ Generation X age group dropped by −21.8% from 1980 to 2020. This population loss was driven by the loss of over 4,000 college-age young people who left the Park Towns in 1990 and 2000. While the Park Towns recruited over 800 young people after age 35, this did not recoup the loss of college-age young people. It remains to be seen if the Generation X age group will recruit retirees in the future. Loss of college-age young people drove population losses across all rural areas for the Generation X age group, from -14.6% to -23.7%. In this age group, New York State started to reverse its trend of losing population and the U.S. posted a 17.6% gain.

Figure 88: Population changes in the Generation X age group (born between 1966 and 1975) in nine study regions from 1980 to 2020

Graph of Population Changes for Generation X (born between 1966 and 1975) in nine study regions from 1980 to 2020 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 1980 5–14 1990 15–24 2000 25–34 2010 35–44 2020 45–54 New York State Rural NY Towns Park Towns Split Towns United States USDA Nonmetro Low Density US USDA Nonmetro NE Low Density NE Graph of Population Changes for Generation X (born between 1966 and 1975) in nine study regions from 1980 to 2020 normalized to United States population to remove mortality and U.S. immigration factors -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 1980 5–14 1990 15–24 2000 25–34 2010 35–44 2020 45–54 New York State Rural NY Towns Park Towns Split Towns United States USDA Nonmetro Low Density US USDA Nonmetro NE Low Density NE

Figure 88 shows in two line graphs the population gains or losses of the Generation X age group across nine different regions from 1980 to 2020, first as raw percentages and second normalized using U.S. population to correct for mortality, et cetera.